The 2024 Hurricane Season - Much Busier Than Average
ALWAYS USE YOUR OWN JUDGEMENT
A Named Storm may be any of the following: a Tropical Storm with winds from 39 to 73 MPH; a Hurricane (Category 1 or 2) with winds of 74 MPH or greater; or a Major Hurricane (Category 3 or above) with winds above 111 MPH. Here are the forecast numbers from three major sources, along with an “Average” season and 2023 numbers for comparison. Keep in mind that one reason Florida rates high on numbers of tornados is the so-called “Outer Bands” of a hurricane, which frequently spawn small tornados far from the actual center of the storm.
| Source | Named Storms | Hurricanes | Major Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Hurricane Center | 17-25 | 8-13 | 4-7 |
| AccuWeather | 20-25 | 8-12 | 4-7 |
| Colorado State University | 23 | 11 | 5 |
| “Average” Season | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| 2023 Storm Counts | 20 | 7 | 3 |
| 2023 Storm Landfalls | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Hurricanes Affecting Collier County Since 1950 Interactive Storm Tracker: 1851 to Present | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Ian | 2017 Irma | 2005 Wilma | 1992 Andrew |
| 1964 Isbell | 1960 Donna | 1950 Easy | |
Colorado State University looked at NOAA’s historical hurricane tracks to predict what the 2024 hurricane season could mean to specific states. Here are the top 5 chances of tropical cyclone impact probabilities, which CSU defined as one or more storms within 50 miles of each location.
| 2024 forecast probability of Named Storm impact | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida: 96% | No. Carolina: 85% | Louisiana: 84% | Georgia: 82% | Texas: 80% |
2024 forecast probability of Hurricane impact | ||||
| Florida: 75% | No. Carolina: 56% | Louisiana: 56% | Texas: 54% | Georgia: 46% |
2024 forecast probability of Major Hurricane impact | ||||
| Florida: 44% | Texas: 25% | Louisiana: 23% | So. Carolina: 14% | Alabama: 14% |
Predictions for the top 20 Florida coastal counties most likely to feel impact in 2024.
| 2024 forecast probability of Named Storm impact | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe: 71% | Miami-Dade: 62% | Brevard: 61% | Broward: 61% | Collier: 61% |
| Palm Beach: 61% | Lee: 58% | Escambia: 57% | Nassau: 57% | Volusia: 57% |
| Charlotte: 56% | Duval: 56% | Martin: 56% | St. Johns: 56% | Indian River: 55% |
| Manatee: 55% | Pinellas: 54% | Hillsborough: 53% | Levy: 53% | Okaloosa: 53% |
2024 forecast probability of Hurricane impact | ||||
| Monroe: 46% | Miami-Dade: 36% | Broward: 35% | Collier: 34% | Palm Beach: 34% |
| Lee: 29% | Manatee: 29% | Escambia: 28% | Martin: 28% | Hillsborough: 28% |
| Brevard: 27% | Volusia: 27% | Charlotte: 27% | Indian River: 27% | Pinellas: 27% |
| Pasco: 27% | Sarasota: 27% | Walton: 27% | Bay: 27% | Citrus: 27% |
2024 forecast probability of Major Hurricane impact | ||||
| Monroe: 27% | Miami-Dade: 23% | Collier: 21% | Lee: 19% | Broward: 18% |
| Charlotte: 17% | Palm Beach: 15% | Sarasota: 14% | Manatee: 13% | Escambia: 11% |
| Martin: 11% | Hillsborough: 11% | Pinellas: 11% | Indian River: 10% | Brevard: 9% |
| Walton: 9% | Santa Rosa: 9% | Okaloosa: 9% | St. Lucie: 9% | Pasco: 8% |
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